Like anything, I could be wrong, but as of All Saints Day, I see Trump winning. This is based on two things:
I’ve noticed an immediate and insane uptick in energy the last few days, and all of it is coming from people clustered in several political alignments, namely rural and suburban dwellers who are opposed to the various measures intended by the government to stop the spread of the Wu-flu, aka Covid19.
I live in California, specifically, rural California, though I’m not too far from a mid-size city (Modesto), and not far enough from a large city (San Francisco).
In my little town, Halloween was HUGE. It’s huge every year, but it remained huge. Everyone was out in costume, with no regard to social distancing or masks. A few people passing out candy used means to avoid being close to others, including shooting candy down long pipes (which the kids honestly found fun), but there was very little non-participation. The community in general gave ZERO shits for any distancing measures, and that includes the police.
This may not seem like much, but the break point in the infinite lockdowns came right before the election – the energy was against it, growing and perhaps peaking at the perfect time.
It wasn’t just my town, though. I went by the Spirit Halloween store today with my son (we go every year to pick up toy swords, etc.), and the place was CLEARED OUT. That means that people were buying everything in the store by Halloween because they intended to participate. This store was in the Modesto, a mid-size city with no shortage of blue voters. Likewise the grocery store had no Halloween decorations left and their post-halloween clearance consisted of a few bags of odd candies. Even the candy-corn had been totally bought out prior to Halloween.
Keep in mind our stores here carry a lot of holiday stuff, at least an entire aisle worth of decorations and another isle full of candy. I’m used to being able to get lots of things at a discount the week after, but this year, there was nothing to get.
While we were in town, there was also multiple informal and impromptu parades of trump supporters. People were driving up and down every major street with trump flags, cheering, whistling, and showing off their classic cars (George Lucas, who is from Modesto, set American Graffiti here for good reason).
The energy here is double what it was back in 2016, which honestly was a low-energy year because most conservatives had been demoralized by the previous few election cycles. At the same time, one party (Democrats) has aligned themselves totally with something that people hate (lockdowns, etc.), while the other (Republicans) has aligned themselves against it. And Trump is the figurehead of that energy and alignment.
The other side? The opposite of energy. A few people hid inside during Halloween, even posting signs that they had Covid (a lie), then complaining on Next Door today that people still rang their doorbell, not realizing that literally every other house in the neighborhood was celebrating.
So the energy is totally with one alignment, and that alignment is with Trump.
I don’t think Trump will take California, because despite this energy there are still going to be piles of illegal voters from the mega-cities drowning out every voice here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few “blue” states with similar urban/rural alignments flipping red.
The polls are bogus, as always, and “feeling energy” isn’t exactly scientific, but I can tell you that if people in California are energized despite being in a place where their vote is very likely meaningless, other people whose votes really do matter are going to be even more energized. They are going to vote. They are going to get their neighbors to vote. People are going to want to vote for a winner, and Trump feels like the winner.
I could always be wrong, but the last few days are showing Trump’s energy peaking at just the right time.
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